Posted at 30 January 2024 / Categories Market Roundups
Market Roundup
•US Nov House Price Index (YoY) 6.6%,6.3% previous
•US Nov House Price Index (MoM) 0.3%, 0.2% forecast,0.3% previous
•US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 s.a. (MoM) 0.1%,0.6% previous
•US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (MoM) -0.2%,0.1% previous
•US Nov S&P/CS HPI Composite - 20 n.s.a. (YoY) 5.4%, 5.8% forecast,4.9% previous
•US Nov House Price Index 417.4,416.3 previous
•US Dec JOLTs Job Openings 9.026M,8.750M forecast, 8.790M previous
•US Jan CB Consumer Confidence 114.8,115.0 forecast,110.7 previous
•US Jan Texas Services Sector Outlook -9.3,-8.7 previous
Looking Ahead Economic Data(GMT)
•00:00 New Zealand Jan ANZ Business Confidence 33.2 previous
•00:00 New Zealand Jan NBNZ Own Activity 29.3% previous
•00:30 Australia CPI (YoY) (Q4) 4.3% forecast,5.4% previous
•00:30 Australia CPI (QoQ) (Q4) 0.8% forecast,1.2% previous
•00:30 Australia Dec Private Sector Credit (MoM) 0.4% forecast,0.4% previous
•01:30 China Jan Manufacturing PMI 49.3 forecast,49.0 previous
•01:30 China Jan Chinese Composite PMI 50.3 previous
•01:30 China Jan Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.6 forecast,50.4 previous
•05:00 Japan Jan Household Confidence 37.6 forecast,37.2 previous
•05:00 Japan Construction Orders (YoY) 33.6% previous
Looking Ahead Events And Other Releases(GMT)
•No Data Ahead
EUR/USD: The euro steadied on Tuesday after data showed the euro zone narrowly avoided a technical recession in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the 20 countries sharing the euro was flat in the fourth quarter against the previous three months, mainly thanks to strong growth in Spain and Portugal and a modest increase in Italy, while the German economy shrank in the final three months of 2023.The euro was edged up 0.14% at $1.0846 against the dollar, as expectations are for a stronger U.S. outlook than in the euro zone, which has led investors to fully pricing in a rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in April. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.0857(Jan 28th high), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.0881( 23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.0808 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.0778 (Lower BB).
GBP/USD: Britain's pound eased on Tuesday after encouraging mortgage and shop prices data eased some pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to keep interest rates high as it prepares for its policy meeting this week. BoE data showed that British lenders last month approved the most mortgages since June, adding to signs that the squeeze on property transactions from high interest rates is easing.The BoE said 50,459 mortgages for house purchase were approved in December, less than 52,500 forecast in a Reuters poll of economists, but up from 49,313 in November.Separately, data published by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) showed prices in British shops rose at the slowest annual pace since May 2022 this month.Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.2756(23.6%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.2793(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.2631 (38.2%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.2613(Lower BB).
USD/CAD: The Canadian currency rose to a two-week high versus the US dollar on Tuesday, but the gains were modest a day before a Federal Reserve policy decision and domestic GDP data. The US central bank is anticipated to hold interest rates steady at the end of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday, and investors will look for any hints from Fed Chair Jerome Powell about the possibility of a rate decrease in March. Analysts predict Canadian GDP, which is also coming on Wednesday, to climb by 0.1% in November after being unchanged in October. As the domestic economy weakens, the Bank of Canada's attention shifts to when to reduce borrowing costs rather than whether to raise interest rates again. The loonie was trading 0.1% higher at 1.3402 to the greenback. Immediate resistance can be seen at 1.3434 (38.2%fib), an upside break can trigger rise towards 1.3496 (23.6%fib).On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3385 (50%fib), a break below could take the pair towards 1.3337 (61.8%fib).
USD/JPY: The dollar was little changed against the yen on Tuesday ahead of the conclusion of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. The U.S. central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged on Wednesday and investors will focus on any clues from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on the likelihood of a rate cut in March.Solid U.S. economic data has led traders to pare bets of a March cut to a 46% probability, from around 89% a month ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The dollar index was last up 0.04% at 103.52. The currency is largely seen as consolidating before Wednesday’s Fed decision and highly anticipated U.S. jobs data for January due on Friday.Strong resistance can be seen at 148.53(23.6%fib),an upside break can trigger rise towards 149.58(Higher BB).On the downside, immediate support is seen 147.11 (38.2%fib)a break below could take the pair towards 146.66(Jan 24th low).
Equities Recap
European stocks finished marginally higher after reaching new two-year highs on Tuesday, as investors were reassured by positive company reports, while France's blue-chip stock index set a new record.
UK's benchmark FTSE 100 closed up by 0.44 percent, Germany's Dax ended up by 0.18 percent, France’s CAC finished the day up by 0.48 percent.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq fell on Tuesday as investors awaited a slew of high-profile business results and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.
Dow Jones closed up by 0.35% percent, S&P 500 closed down by 0.06% percent, Nasdaq settled down by 0.76% percent.
Commodities Recap
Gold prices rose to a two-week high on Tuesday, aided by a weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields, as investors looked to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting for clues on when it may cut interest rates this year.
Spot gold was up 0.2% at $2,035.32 per ounce by 12:09 p.m.(1709 GMT), after hitting its highest since Jan. 16 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $2,034.20.
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as a higher global economic growth forecast and escalating tensions in the Middle East offset concerns around Chinese demand.
March Brent crude futures , which expire on Wednesday, rose 47 cents to settle at $82.87 a barrel. The more active April contract settled up 67 cents at $82.50.U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled up $1.04, or 1.35%, at $77.82.